Ian McHale and Phil Scarf
Modelling football match results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting
John Goddard and Ioannis Asimakopoulos
Bayesian hierarchical model for the prediction of football results
Gianluca Baio and Marta A. Blangiardo
Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Analysis of Soccer Data using Bivariate Poisson Regression Models
Dimitris Karlis and John Ntzoufras
http://www.stats.org.uk/football-betting/
A collection of various on papers on football betting and other sports